Soccer betting guide

Soccer is the world game, and the one sport on the board where the draw changes everything. A three-way market means one more outcome to price, one more place for the margin, and a whole family of bets designed to deal with the draw. This guide explains the 1X2 market, draw no bet, double chance and the Asian handicap, with worked payouts, and sets out the Canadian soccer calendar. Live markets sit on our soccer betting page.

Canada's soccer year

The 1X2 market

Soccer's main market has three outcomes over 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count, which matters in cup knockouts: a 1-1 draw that is settled on penalties is a draw for 1X2 bets.

Illustrative prices. The overround of 104.81% is a margin of 1 - 1/1.0481 = 4.59%. In their study of 84,230 European matches, economists Hegarty and Whelan found 1X2 markets show a strong favourite-longshot bias, with longshots losing more per dollar bet, and that Asian handicap markets carry lower margins than 1X2. Our bookmaker margin guide explains how to measure that on any line.

Draw no bet and double chance

Both take the sting out of the draw, at a price.

Draw no bet (DNB): back a team; if it draws, the stake comes back. You can estimate a fair-to-the-book DNB price from the 1X2 odds:

• DNB odds = home odds x (1 - 1 / draw odds)

The formula works because DNB is the same as splitting your stake between the home win and a small "cover" bet on the draw that returns the total stake. Books quote their own DNB prices, which may be slightly worse.

Double chance: two of the three outcomes in one bet: home or draw (1X), away or draw (X2), or either team (12). With the prices above, 1X covers 47.62% + 29.41% = 77.03% of implied probability, so a fair-to-the-book price is about 1 / 0.7703 = 1.30, before the book trims it.

Asian handicap

Asian handicap (AH) removes the draw by giving one team a head start in goals, including quarter-goal lines that split your stake.

On a quarter line the stake is split across the two neighbouring lines. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1.

Worked case: C$40 on home -0.75 at 1.95, and the home side wins 2-1. The -0.5 half (C$20) wins and returns C$39; the -1 half (C$20) pushes and returns C$20. Total back: C$59, profit C$19.

According to Hegarty and Whelan, about three-quarters of AH bets in their sample were on quarter lines that include a partial refund outcome.

Totals and both teams to score

• Over/under 2.5 goals is the standard total. Whole and quarter totals (2.25, 2.75) split like Asian handicaps.
• Both teams to score (BTTS): yes or no. Correlated with the total, so books block some combinations in a single parlay.

Where soccer is priced in Canada

Loto-Quebec's Mise-o-jeu lists soccer with decimal odds, and most offshore books serving players outside Ontario and Alberta carry deep European and MLS menus. bet365, Betway, Beazt, LeoVegas and 20Bet all list soccer, and several offer bet builders on it; see same game parlays. For the CPL, coverage is thinner: check that your book lists it before relying on it.

Soccer and parlays

Weekend soccer accumulators are a staple, and a ten-match "acca" is where the compounding margin bites hardest: at a 4.59% margin per leg, ten legs keep only about 62.5% of stakes on average (0.9541 to the tenth power). Run tickets through the parlay calculator and read parlays explained before building one.

Keep it to a plan

Soccer runs almost every day of the year somewhere. Decide which leagues you follow and how many bets a week, and keep live betting to a planned few; in-play soccer moves minute by minute (see live betting and cash out). Our bankroll management guide sets stakes from a monthly budget; responsible gambling lists help in your province.