RTP and volatility explained
Games · Canada 
Two numbers describe how a casino game treats your money. RTP (return to player) sets the long-run price: how much of every dollar wagered the game hands back over millions of rounds. Volatility sets the ride: whether that payback arrives as a steady trickle or in rare bursts. Players tend to look at the first and feel the second. This guide explains both, shows where the published figures come from, and uses a simple model to show why two games with the same RTP can give completely different evenings.
RTP and house edge
RTP and house edge are two sides of one number.
- House edge = 100% - RTP
- Expected cost = amount wagered x house edge
A slot at 96.50% RTP has a 3.50% house edge. Wager C$2,000 on it over an evening and the expected cost is C$70. Note "wagered", not "deposited": a C$100 deposit spun through many times can easily turn into C$2,000 of wagers.
RTP figures across game types, from the studios' own pages or worked out from the game rules:
| Game | RTP | House edge | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGaming Plinko | 99% | 1% | BGaming game page |
| Baccarat, banker bet (8 decks, 5% commission) | 98.94% | 1.06% | Our calculation from the rules |
| European roulette | 97.30% | 2.70% | 1/37, from the wheel |
| Aviator (Spribe) | 97% | 3% | Spribe game page |
| Aviamasters (BGaming) | 97% | 3% | BGaming game page |
| Big Bass Bonanza | 96.71% | 3.29% | Pragmatic Play game page |
| Gates of Olympus | 96.50% | 3.50% | Pragmatic Play game page |
| Crazy Time (Evolution) | 96.08% | 3.92% | Evolution game page |
| American roulette | 94.74% | 5.26% | 2/38, from the wheel |
The roulette rows need no published figure: a European wheel has 37 pockets and pays 35 to 1 on a single number, so the expected return is 36/37 = 97.30%. Our roulette guide and baccarat guide show the full working.
One game, several RTPs
Slot studios often ship each game with several RTP settings; the casino decides which one goes live. Hacksaw Gaming's page for Wanted Dead or a Wild lists four: 96.38%, 94.55%, 92.33% and 88.42%.
Worked example: you wager C$1,000 on Wanted Dead or a Wild. At 96.38% the expected cost is C$36.20. At 94.55% it is C$54.50. At 92.33%, C$76.70. At 88.42%, C$115.80. Same game, same artwork, and the price changes by a factor of 3.2 depending on a setting you cannot see on the reels.
The setting in use is shown in the game's own help or paytable screen at your casino. That screen is the only number that counts. If a casino will not show it, treat the game as running a low setting. The slots guide covers where else the RTP hides.
Volatility: same price, different ride
Volatility describes how the RTP is distributed. Studios rate it on their own scales: Hacksaw rates Wanted Dead or a Wild 4 out of 5 with a top win of 12,500 times the stake. There is no industry-standard definition of "medium" or "high", so compare ratings within one studio.
To see what volatility does, take two made-up games with the same 96% RTP:
- Steady: pays 2 times the stake on 48% of spins, nothing otherwise. RTP = 0.48 x 2 = 96%.
- Spiky: pays 100 times the stake on 0.96% of spins, nothing otherwise. RTP = 0.0096 x 100 = 96%.
Play each for 200 spins at C$1, C$200 wagered in total. We worked out the exact odds with the binomial distribution:
| After 200 spins at C$1 | Steady | Spiky |
|---|---|---|
| Expected amount returned | C$192 | C$192 |
| Chance of finishing ahead (more than C$200 back) | 26.2% | 30.2% |
| Chance of getting back C$150 or less (down C$50+) | 0.2% | 42.7% |
| Chance of getting back nothing at all | about 0% | 14.5% |
| Chance of getting back C$400 or more | about 0% | 12.8% |
| Steady (low volatility) | 0.2 % |
|---|---|
| Spiky (high volatility) | 42.7 % |
Same RTP, same expected cost of C$8. But the spiky game loses C$50 or more four times in ten, and in one session in seven returns nothing; it also produces the big nights. The steady game almost never strays far from C$192. Real slots sit between these extremes, with many win sizes, but the pattern holds: high volatility widens the range of outcomes in both directions.
Over longer play the gap shows again: in the same model, after 1,000 spins the steady game finishes ahead only 9.7% of the time, the spiky one 36.7%. RTP drags everyone toward the average eventually; volatility decides how long that takes.
Hit frequency is not volatility
Hit frequency is the share of spins that pay anything. Our steady game hits 48% of spins; the spiky one under 1%. Real slots blur this: many pay small "wins" below the stake on a quarter of spins while keeping most of the RTP in a rare bonus round. A slot that "hits a lot" can still be highly volatile.
Choosing by budget
| Your situation | What fits |
|---|---|
| Small budget, want a long session | Higher RTP, lower volatility |
| Clearing a bonus with a deadline | Higher RTP, lower to medium volatility, 100% weighting |
| Small stake, chasing a big multiplier | High volatility, accepting most sessions end early |
For bonus play, volatility matters twice: a big swing can bust the balance before the wagering is done, and RTP sets the expected cost of the turnover. The wagering requirements guide and the wagering calculator turn that into numbers; the game weighting guide shows which games count.
Jackpots and RTP
Progressive jackpot slots put part of every bet into the pot, so their base-game RTP is lower and a slice of the stated RTP is only paid to the rare jackpot winner. For almost every player, the experienced return is below the headline. See jackpot slots.
What RTP cannot do
- It cannot predict a session. The model above shows how far a short run can land from the average.
- It does not change with time of day, how long since the last win, or how much you have lost.
- It does not make a game a source of income. Every RTP below 100% has a cost, and the more you wager, the more of it you pay.
Set the budget first: the Lower-Risk Gambling Guidelines suggest no more than 1% of household income a month. Our responsible gambling page lists the free helpline in your province. To compare games by RTP, start on our slots page.
Sources
- hacksawgaming.com/games/wanted-dead-or-a-wild
- pragmaticplay.com/en/games/big-bass-bonanza
- pragmaticplay.com/en/games/gates-of-olympus
- games.evolution.com/live-casino/game-shows/crazy-time
- spribe.co/games/aviator
- bgaming.com/games/plinko
- bgaming.com/games/aviamasters
Questions players ask
What does RTP mean?
Return to player: the share of all money wagered on a game that it pays back over a very long run. A 96% RTP slot keeps 4% of stakes on average; that 4% is the house edge.
Is a higher RTP always better?
For the long-run price, yes: a 96.5% slot costs half as much per dollar wagered as a 93% one. It does not decide whether a single session wins or loses; volatility matters more over a few hundred spins.
What is the difference between RTP and volatility?
RTP is how much a game pays back on average. Volatility is how that payback is spread: often and small, or rarely and big. Two games with the same RTP can produce very different sessions.
Where do I find a game's RTP at my casino?
In the game's help or info screen. Many slots run several RTP settings and the casino chooses one, so the studio's top figure may not be what you are playing.